羅奇(Stephen Roach)表示,2008年至2017年間美國、日本和歐元區的央行憑空印出8.3萬億美元,期間這幾個國家的名義國內生產總值合共只上升了2.1萬億美元。以下是值得思考的問題:

1.額外的6.2萬億(8.3 - 2.1=6.2)印鈔去哪了?它們是否全部用作推高股票、債券、地產和比特幣的價格呢?

2.印鈔、下調利率、量化寬鬆等等中央銀行的騙術,能否帶來真正的財富呢?如果能夠的話,為何委內瑞拉不開動印鈔機,推行量化寬鬆以償還債務呢?真正的財富難道不是透過多勞多得,難道不是透過人們做實事滿足顧客需求而獲取的嗎?

3.聯儲局沒有再投資到期債券,將導致6億美元的印鈔在2018年底前報廢。歐洲央行和日本央行已經停止擴張資產負債表。多間央行決定停止印鈔,把派對上的酒杯拿走,對2018年會有何影響呢?

4. 全球債務總額已超過GDP的290%。我們的金融基建對量化寬已上瘾,但主要的央行已經計劃或已實行上調利率。我們是否應該繼續堅信過去十年間累積的新債務能承受利率顯著上升呢?假如10年期債券收益率經過一番波折後重回6.31%的長遠平均水平的話,又會怎樣呢?

5. 一篇近期的華爾街日報文章指出,近期債券抛售已令公司債券市場起了變化。到底這將是「軟著陸」,還是最終會引起恐慌,導致較2008年差十億倍的全球流動性危機呢?

卡欣(Art Cashin)寫道:1961年10月20日,紐約現代藝術館展出最新、最引以為傲的藏品《小船》。數個星期前,藝術館已經取得馬諦斯(Henry Matisse)的畫作《小船》(Le Bateau)。馬諦斯七年之前已經離世,他是其中一位偉大的現代藝術過渡主義畫家。馬諦斯受莫內和他的老師莫羅的印象派象徵主義影響,成為了其中一位野獸派的創辦人,啟發了畢加索(Pablo Picasso)和布拉克(Georges Braque)立體主義的出現。因此,紐約現代藝術館公眾展出《小船》是一件大事。這件事受到廣泛報導,在及後的四十八天內,逾十萬人帶著崇拜的目光走過這幅受歡迎的畫作。過了好一段時間才有人發現這幅畫作看起來和書上的不一樣。原因不難理解。博物館員工在不知情的情況下把畫作上下顛倒掛起來,足足四十八天,沒有一位行家發現問題所在。

Stephen Roach said that between 2008 and 2017 central banks of the U.S., Japan and the eurozone printed $8.3 trillion out of thin air, while nominal GDP in these four countries only increased by $2.1 trillion altogether. Questions to ponder:

  1. What happened to the extra $8.3-$2.1=$6.2 trillion of printed money? Did they all go to inflate the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate and bitcoins?
  2. Can real wealth come from printing money, lower interest rates, QE, or other central bank quackery? If yes, why didn't Venezuela turned to the printing press and QE to cover its bills? Doesn't real wealth come from hard work, from people doing real work that satisfies a customer's wants?
  3. The Fed is not rolling over maturing bonds, which will destroy $600 million of the printed money by the end of 2018. ECB and JOB have stopped expanding their balance sheet. How would central banks' decision to stop printing and take away the punch bowl affect 2018?
  4. Global debt is near 300% of GDP. Our financial infrastructure is addicted to easy money, but major central banks are planning or implementing rate hikes. Should we continue to be convinced that the additional debt we have accumulated over the last 10 years can withstand a significant rise in interest rates? What if 10-year Treasury rates meander back to its long-term average of 6.31%?
  5. A recent WSJ article said the recent bond sell off had sent ripples through corporate-debt market. Would this be a soft landing, or would it finally cause a panic that would lead to a global liquidity crisis billion times worse than 2008? 

Art Cashin wrote: On 20 October 1961, the Museum of Modern Art, in New York, hung its newest and proudest possession.  Weeks before, they had acquired "Le Bateau" by Henri Matisse.  Matisse, who had died seven years earlier, was one of the great transitionalist painters of modern art.  Influenced by the impressionist symbolism of Monet and his teacher, Moreau, Matisse was a founder of the Fauvist school that led to the cubism of Picasso and Braque. So it was a big deal when the museum threw open its doors triumphantly to allow the public to view "Le Bateau."  The event caused much publicity and over the next 48 days over 100,000 people trooped admiringly past the celebrated painting.  It was only then that someone remarked that it didn't look like it did in the book.  There was a good reason for that.  The museum staff had unknowingly hung it upside down and for 48 days none of the cognoscenti noticed the difference (Source: https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-upside-down/)

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