聯儲局終於在上星期四會議後公佈量化緊縮時間表,今年十月開始縮減中央銀行 4.5 萬億美元的資產負債表,十二月將按早前計劃加息。聯儲局將停止再投資到期債券,直至資產負債表下調至目標水平。資產負債表將以每月約100億美元的速度縮減,下年將加至以每月約500億美元的速度縮減。

聯儲局緊縮政策將減少貨幣供應,提高利率。

我不認為聯儲局能貫徹執行計劃。美國經濟將碰壁,整個體系將在堆積如山的債務下倒塌。

當股市崩盤,到處出現破產時,我們將見第五輪、第六輪量化寬鬆。清算的日子早晚到來,市場歸零重啟將是無可避免。

The Fed finally gave a timetable for QT (Quantitative Tightening) after its meeting on Thursday last week. It sets October as the start of the unwinding of the central bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet and will stick to the planned rate hike in December this year. The Fed will stop rolling over debts until the balance sheet comes down to the targeted level. It will shrink its balance sheet at a rate of about $10 billion a month, then going up to $50 billion a month next year.

The Fed’s QT policy will reduce money supply and increase interest rates.

I don't think the Fed can follow through with its plans. The economy will hit a wall and the whole system will collapse under the mountain of debts.

When stocks crash and bankruptcies are everywhere, we will see QE5, QE6, … QE infinity. And when the day of reckoning arrives, a hard reset is inevitable.

 

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