羅奇(Stephen Roach)表示,2008年至2017年間美國、日本和歐元區的央行憑空印出8.3萬億美元,期間這幾個國家的名義國內生產總值合共只上升了2.1萬億美元。以下是值得思考的問題:

1.額外的6.2萬億(8.3 - 2.1=6.2)印鈔去哪了?它們是否全部用作推高股票、債券、地產和比特幣的價格呢?

2.印鈔、下調利率、量化寬鬆等等中央銀行的騙術,能否帶來真正的財富呢?如果能夠的話,為何委內瑞拉不開動印鈔機,推行量化寬鬆以償還債務呢?真正的財富難道不是透過多勞多得,難道不是透過人們做實事滿足顧客需求而獲取的嗎?

3.聯儲局沒有再投資到期債券,將導致6億美元的印鈔在2018年底前報廢。歐洲央行和日本央行已經停止擴張資產負債表。多間央行決定停止印鈔,把派對上的酒杯拿走,對2018年會有何影響呢?

4. 全球債務總額已超過GDP的290%。我們的金融基建對量化寬已上瘾,但主要的央行已經計劃或已實行上調利率。我們是否應該繼續堅信過去十年間累積的新債務能承受利率顯著上升呢?假如10年期債券收益率經過一番波折後重回6.31%的長遠平均水平的話,又會怎樣呢?

5. 一篇近期的華爾街日報文章指出,近期債券抛售已令公司債券市場起了變化。到底這將是「軟著陸」,還是最終會引起恐慌,導致較2008年差十億倍的全球流動性危機呢?

卡欣(Art Cashin)寫道:1961年10月20日,紐約現代藝術館展出最新、最引以為傲的藏品《小船》。數個星期前,藝術館已經取得馬諦斯(Henry Matisse)的畫作《小船》(Le Bateau)。馬諦斯七年之前已經離世,他是其中一位偉大的現代藝術過渡主義畫家。馬諦斯受莫內和他的老師莫羅的印象派象徵主義影響,成為了其中一位野獸派的創辦人,啟發了畢加索(Pablo Picasso)和布拉克(Georges Braque)立體主義的出現。因此,紐約現代藝術館公眾展出《小船》是一件大事。這件事受到廣泛報導,在及後的四十八天內,逾十萬人帶著崇拜的目光走過這幅受歡迎的畫作。過了好一段時間才有人發現這幅畫作看起來和書上的不一樣。原因不難理解。博物館員工在不知情的情況下把畫作上下顛倒掛起來,足足四十八天,沒有一位行家發現問題所在。

Stephen Roach said that between 2008 and 2017 central banks of the U.S., Japan and the eurozone printed $8.3 trillion out of thin air, while nominal GDP in these four countries only increased by $2.1 trillion altogether. Questions to ponder:

  1. What happened to the extra $8.3-$2.1=$6.2 trillion of printed money? Did they all go to inflate the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate and bitcoins?
  2. Can real wealth come from printing money, lower interest rates, QE, or other central bank quackery? If yes, why didn't Venezuela turned to the printing press and QE to cover its bills? Doesn't real wealth come from hard work, from people doing real work that satisfies a customer's wants?
  3. The Fed is not rolling over maturing bonds, which will destroy $600 million of the printed money by the end of 2018. ECB and JOB have stopped expanding their balance sheet. How would central banks' decision to stop printing and take away the punch bowl affect 2018?
  4. Global debt is near 300% of GDP. Our financial infrastructure is addicted to easy money, but major central banks are planning or implementing rate hikes. Should we continue to be convinced that the additional debt we have accumulated over the last 10 years can withstand a significant rise in interest rates? What if 10-year Treasury rates meander back to its long-term average of 6.31%?
  5. A recent WSJ article said the recent bond sell off had sent ripples through corporate-debt market. Would this be a soft landing, or would it finally cause a panic that would lead to a global liquidity crisis billion times worse than 2008? 

Art Cashin wrote: On 20 October 1961, the Museum of Modern Art, in New York, hung its newest and proudest possession.  Weeks before, they had acquired "Le Bateau" by Henri Matisse.  Matisse, who had died seven years earlier, was one of the great transitionalist painters of modern art.  Influenced by the impressionist symbolism of Monet and his teacher, Moreau, Matisse was a founder of the Fauvist school that led to the cubism of Picasso and Braque. So it was a big deal when the museum threw open its doors triumphantly to allow the public to view "Le Bateau."  The event caused much publicity and over the next 48 days over 100,000 people trooped admiringly past the celebrated painting.  It was only then that someone remarked that it didn't look like it did in the book.  There was a good reason for that.  The museum staff had unknowingly hung it upside down and for 48 days none of the cognoscenti noticed the difference (Source: https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-upside-down/)

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本文乃作者個人意見並不構成任何投資建議。

作者不承擔任何因使用本文章所提供的資訊內容或資料所產生的直接、間接、附帶的、特別的、衍生性或懲罰性賠償,包括收入、利潤、經營、商譽等損失或其他無形損失。作者不負責任何因下載本文章所引致的電腦病毒感染、通訊系統故障或其他故障、越權存取、資料刪改、遺漏或其他錯誤、資料被盜或毀滅所導致的損失。

如本協定的中、英文本出現分歧,以英文文本為准。

 

This newsletter represents only the opinions of the author. Any views expressed should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

In no event shall the author be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or exemplary damages including damages for loss of revenue, anticipated profits, loss of business, goodwill, or other tangible or intangible losses resulting from the use of any data or information provided in this article.

The author disclaims any liability and losses consequent upon the downloading of this article which results in computer virus infections, communication network failures and other failures, unauthorized access of all types, data alterations and omissions and other data errors, and data theft or destruction of records.

In case of discrepancies in the Chinese and English versions of this agreement, the English version shall prevail.

 

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上週,比特幣的價格創下新高,在週三早上突破11,000美元。

年初時其價格僅為997美元。

2012年,比特幣價格更只得8美元。不久後,Mt. Gox就被黑客入侵,價值將近5億美元的比特幣被盜。

在2011年初,它連1美元都不值。

我並不敢相信這個事實。

比特幣的價格會持續上升,抑或「泡沫」會爆破?

我採用了四種不同的時間序列模型作分析,以找出預測比特幣價格的最佳方法。在其後的分析中,我將會運用更多其他的預測法。

Bitcoin's price hit a new record last week, soaring above $11,000 on Wednesday morning.

It started off the year trading at just $997.

It was trading at about $8 in 2012. Shortly afterwards, Mt. Gox was hacked and almost $500 million worth of bitcoin was stolen.

It was worth less than $1 in early 2011.

I can’t believe what happened.

Will it continue to rise or will the 'bubble' burst?  
I used four different time series models to find out the best model to forecast Bitcoin price. More time-series models will be included in the competition later on.
See: http://www.alantse.net/index.php/2017-12-03-09-50-27/bitcoin 

 

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本文乃作者個人意見並不構成任何投資建議。

作者不承擔任何因使用本文章所提供的資訊內容或資料所產生的直接、間接、附帶的、特別的、衍生性或懲罰性賠償,包括收入、利潤、經營、商譽等損失或其他無形損失。作者不負責任何因下載本文章所引致的電腦病毒感染、通訊系統故障或其他故障、越權存取、資料刪改、遺漏或其他錯誤、資料被盜或毀滅所導致的損失。

如本協定的中、英文本出現分歧,以英文文本為准。

 

This newsletter represents only the opinions of the author. Any views expressed should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

In no event shall the author be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or exemplary damages including damages for loss of revenue, anticipated profits, loss of business, goodwill, or other tangible or intangible losses resulting from the use of any data or information provided in this article.

The author disclaims any liability and losses consequent upon the downloading of this article which results in computer virus infections, communication network failures and other failures, unauthorized access of all types, data alterations and omissions and other data errors, and data theft or destruction of records.

In case of discrepancies in the Chinese and English versions of this agreement, the English version shall prevail.

 

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圖表顯示現時歐洲垃圾債券的平均收益率低於美國十年期國債收益率基準,叫人驚訝。

現時全球債券市場有三分一的債券由聯儲局、歐洲央行和日本央行坐擁,他們透過各自的央行憑空印出數以十萬億計的美元、日元和歐羅,用以購買這些債券。全球量化寬鬆、央行買盤導致收益率跌至5000年低位,在許多地方更出現負收益率。以1%利率計算,100年後才能收回借出的本金。若貸款利率為負數,成本回收期將是無了期,亦即是你的錢永遠收不回來。

歐洲央行行長「超級馬里奧」德拉吉(Mario Draghi)雖然早前宣布買債規模減半,但繼續承諾將「不惜一切代價」推行他上下顛倒的金融政策。日本方面,安倍聲稱將堅持推行三枝爛箭政策,用印鈔機的「假鈔」拯救經濟。

說實話, 用假的草和飼料餵奶牛,怎可能生產出美味又富營養的牛奶呢?

萬聖節晚最好的玩樂點子,可能是查看美國英國加拿大日本德國等地的國債,又或者看看實時的世界國債時鐘

可以肯定股票市場和高息企業債券市場快有壞事發生,可惜何時發生不能提前知道。

彼得布德瓦(Peter Boockvar)在投資網站布德報告(The Boock Report)說道:「利率正常化之時,將是經濟衰退之日。若你不如此認為,是癡心妄想。」

The graph here shows that the average yield of a European junk bond is now below the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield. Vow!!! 

The Fed, ECB and BoJ now own one-third of the global bond market, which they bought using the tens of trillions of dollars, yen and euros printed by their Central Banks out of thin air.  Global quantitative easing and central bank buying has driven yields to 5,000-year lows, even negative in many places.  At 1% interest, it takes 100 years for you to recover the capital you lend out. When  lending rates are negative, the payback period is infinity, or you’ll never get your money back. 

Super Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, continues to pledge to do “whatever it takes” to support his tipsy-turvy finance game, despite his recent announcement to halve bond buying. And in Japan, Mr. Abe says he will continue the three broken arrow policies to improve the economy by feeding it with fake money. 

Seriously, can you feed a dairy cow with fake grass and alfalfa to make it produce more delicious and nutritious milk? 

Click and watch the debts of the United States, the United KingdomCanadaJapan, Germany and the World Debt Clock in real time is arguably the best Halloween entertainment idea tonight. 

Bad things are going to happen in the equity markets and high yield corporate bonds, that's for sure, though the timing cannot be ascertained beforehand. 

 “We are going to have a recession when rates normalize and if you think otherwise, you’re delusional.” Peter Boockvar, The Boock Report.

 

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本文乃作者個人意見並不構成任何投資建議。

作者不承擔任何因使用本文章所提供的資訊內容或資料所產生的直接、間接、附帶的、特別的、衍生性或懲罰性賠償,包括收入、利潤、經營、商譽等損失或其他無形損失。作者不負責任何因下載本文章所引致的電腦病毒感染、通訊系統故障或其他故障、越權存取、資料刪改、遺漏或其他錯誤、資料被盜或毀滅所導致的損失。

如本協定的中、英文本出現分歧,以英文文本為准。

 

This newsletter represents only the opinions of the author. Any views expressed should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

In no event shall the author be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or exemplary damages including damages for loss of revenue, anticipated profits, loss of business, goodwill, or other tangible or intangible losses resulting from the use of any data or information provided in this article.

The author disclaims any liability and losses consequent upon the downloading of this article which results in computer virus infections, communication network failures and other failures, unauthorized access of all types, data alterations and omissions and other data errors, and data theft or destruction of records.

In case of discrepancies in the Chinese and English versions of this agreement, the English version shall prevail.

 

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「永動機」是一種不需由外界輸入能源就能永遠運轉的設備。

熱力學第一定律指出,在一個封閉且能量無法進入或離開的系統內 ,能量維持守恆。第一定律表明,沒有設備能憑空產生能量,因此永動機不可能存在。

有人亦提出第二類永動機,這類設備從物質抽取熱力,繼而轉化為能量。這類機器並不違反能量守恆定律,但根據熱力學第二定律,物質及其周遭環境的總熵永遠不會下降,因此第二類永動機亦不可能存在。

等等!似乎永動機並非完全不可能。央行的印鈔機正正無中生有,印出數以萬億計的美元,而且無需承擔任何後果。

當股市崩盤,一開「永動印鈔機」,印出新錢購買下跌股票,市場馬上快速反彈回升,簡單!

當利率過高,一開「永動印鈔機」,印出新錢購買債券,將利率下調至近零水平,刺激借貸,推動經濟增長,簡單!

當無人買得起天價樓盤,開動「永動印鈔機」,印出新錢借給香港房屋委員會興建任意數量的單位,簡單!

只要憑空印出數萬億,所有能用錢解決的問題馬上迎刃而解。

天底下哪有這種好事?

明斯基(Hyman Minsky)常提醒我們「穩定會孕育不穩定」。「明斯基時刻」(Minsky Moment)何時會到來?我不知道,但快了。

 

A perpetual motion machine is a device that can do work forever without any external energy input.  

The first law of thermodynamics says that in an isolated system where no energy can be added to or escape from the system, energy is conserved. The first law dictates that no machine can produce energy from nothing, thereby making perpetual motion machines impossible. 

A perpetual motion machine of the second kind has also been suggested where the machine extracts heat from an object and turns it into work. Such machines do not violate the conservation of energy but are nevertheless impossible by virtue of the second law of thermodynamics, which states that the total entropy of an object and its surroundings can never decrease. 

Wait a minute! It looks like perpetual machines are after all possible when central banks' money printing machines are perpetually printing trillions of dollars out of thin air without consequences. 

When stock market crashes, start the perpetual money printing machine to create new money to buy falling stocks and the market will quickly rebound. Piece of cake! 

When interest rates are too high, start the perpetual money printing machine to create new money to buy bonds to drop interest rates to near-zero to stimulate lending and growth. Piece of cake! 

When nobody can afford to buy the nosebleed-priced flats, start the perpetual money printing machine to create new money and lend it to Hong Kong Housing Authority who then build any number of flats we like. Piece of cake! 

And so on and on ….. 

Any problem that can be solved by creating a few trillion out of thin air is no longer a real problem.  

Spooky, too good to be true, isn't it? 

Minsky constantly reminded us that stability begets instability. When will the “Minsky moment” arrive? I don’t know when, but I know it’s coming.

 

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本文乃作者個人意見並不構成任何投資建議。

作者不承擔任何因使用本文章所提供的資訊內容或資料所產生的直接、間接、附帶的、特別的、衍生性或懲罰性賠償,包括收入、利潤、經營、商譽等損失或其他無形損失。作者不負責任何因下載本文章所引致的電腦病毒感染、通訊系統故障或其他故障、越權存取、資料刪改、遺漏或其他錯誤、資料被盜或毀滅所導致的損失。

如本協定的中、英文本出現分歧,以英文文本為准。

 

This newsletter represents only the opinions of the author. Any views expressed should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

In no event shall the author be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or exemplary damages including damages for loss of revenue, anticipated profits, loss of business, goodwill, or other tangible or intangible losses resulting from the use of any data or information provided in this article.

The author disclaims any liability and losses consequent upon the downloading of this article which results in computer virus infections, communication network failures and other failures, unauthorized access of all types, data alterations and omissions and other data errors, and data theft or destruction of records.

In case of discrepancies in the Chinese and English versions of this agreement, the English version shall prevail.

 

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自1986年編制指數以來,VIX (芝加哥期權交易所波動指數)共有37次下降到10以下的水平, 其中有34次就在今年發生,其中11次則發生在10月,錄得最低紀錄的數字在2017年10月5日,跌至驚人的9.19!!!

圖表顯示,目前的VIX是長期指數平均值(18.65)的-47%。

VIX衡量投資者對市場波動的預期。 顯然,數據顯示投資者非常樂觀。 看跌指數的投資者最近獲得了驕人的利潤。 市場變得如此一面倒,股市下跌2%或3%可能已經會造成嚴重破壞,迅間投資者便盡失預算。

現在是時候買升嗎?

There are altogether 37 times when the VIX closed below 10 ever since the index was compiled in 1986, and 34 of those times happened this year, of which 11 occurred in October, with the lowest recorded reading plunged to 9.19 on 5 October 2017!!!  Amazing!!! 

The chart here shows that current VIX is -47% below the long term average of 18.65. 

The VIX measures investor expectations of market volatility. Clearly, the data show that investors are very complacent. Those who short the index have made handsome profits lately. The trade has become so one-sided that a 2% or 3% downward move in the market could cause havoc and quickly things would spiral out of control. 

Is it time now to play the other side of the volatility coin?

 

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本文乃作者個人意見並不構成任何投資建議。

作者不承擔任何因使用本文章所提供的資訊內容或資料所產生的直接、間接、附帶的、特別的、衍生性或懲罰性賠償,包括收入、利潤、經營、商譽等損失或其他無形損失。作者不負責任何因下載本文章所引致的電腦病毒感染、通訊系統故障或其他故障、越權存取、資料刪改、遺漏或其他錯誤、資料被盜或毀滅所導致的損失。

如本協定的中、英文本出現分歧,以英文文本為准。

 

This newsletter represents only the opinions of the author. Any views expressed should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

In no event shall the author be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or exemplary damages including damages for loss of revenue, anticipated profits, loss of business, goodwill, or other tangible or intangible losses resulting from the use of any data or information provided in this article.

The author disclaims any liability and losses consequent upon the downloading of this article which results in computer virus infections, communication network failures and other failures, unauthorized access of all types, data alterations and omissions and other data errors, and data theft or destruction of records.

In case of discrepancies in the Chinese and English versions of this agreement, the English version shall prevail.

 

版權所有,不得轉載。